Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Line

Xing Zhou, Yanling Wang, Xiaofeng Zhou, Weihua Tao, Zhiqiang Niu and Ailing Qu
Volume: 15, No: 2, Page: 331 ~ 343, Year: 2019
10.3745/JIPS.04.0109
Keywords: Confidence Interval, Dynamic Thermal Rating, Monte Carlo Method, Transmission Line Carrying Capacity
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Abstract
Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

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Cite this article
IEEE Style
X. Zhou, Y. Wang, X. Zhou, W. Tao, Z. Niu and A. Qu, "Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Line," Journal of Information Processing Systems, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 331~343, 2019. DOI: 10.3745/JIPS.04.0109.

ACM Style
Xing Zhou, Yanling Wang, Xiaofeng Zhou, Weihua Tao, Zhiqiang Niu, and Ailing Qu. 2019. Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Line, Journal of Information Processing Systems, 15, 2, (2019), 331~343. DOI: 10.3745/JIPS.04.0109.